FIRST JUST LOOKING AT 112 DAY
Inspired by some theories and musings that the SB WINNER always plays
on the day that is 112 days before the Super Bowl ("Super Bowl" = 112)
I did some research and analysis a year ago and wanted to tidy that up
and expand it a bit and then also look at 119 days and 105 days before the SB.
112 days before the SB is always a Sunday because 112 is divisible by 7.
112 DAY was usually WEEK 2 in what I call the OLD SCHOOL era,
the 14 game regular season era...
112 DAY was WEEK 5 from 1978 to 1990
112 DAY has been WEEK 6 of the NFL SEASON since 1991
*except it was WEEK 5 three of those years due to scheduling anomalies
This season 112 DAY is 10/13/19 WEEK 6
HISTORY SAYS
There's an almost 70% chance (69.2%)
that the eventual SB WINNER will PLAY ON 112 DAY AND WIN
There's been 53 SB years, minus the STRIKE YEAR when the NFL
did not play any games on 112 DAY, that's 52 years...
36 times out of those 52 years the eventual SB WINNER
PLAYED ON 112 DAY AND WON.
and of that group, of the 32 examples we have time slot data for,
75.0% of them have PLAYED AT 1PM.
Of the total 36 examples of this, of PLAYING ON 112 DAY AND WINNING,
only ONCE was the team UNDER .500 after 112 DAY. That was the 9/11 season.
So it's a 67.3% chance that the eventual SB WINNER will PLAY ON 112 DAY AND WIN,
AND BE OVER .500
THIS YEAR that looks like it is...
CAROLINA (IF THEY WIN)
the PHILADELPHIA / MINNESOTA WINNER
the HOUSTON / KANSAS CITY WINNER
NEW ORLEANS (IF THEY WIN)
SEATTLE (IF THEY WIN)
BALTIMORE (IF THEY WIN)
the SAN FRANCISCO / LOS ANGELES WINNER
DALLAS (IF THEY WIN)
So it could be as many as 8 TEAMS or as few as 3 TEAMS.
So if your SB PICK or your favorite team is one of those teams,
one of the teams that PLAYS THIS SUNDAY (10/13/19)
AND WINS, and has an over .500 RECORD...
...FEEL GOOD ABOUT 'EM
they are in the 67.3% chance to WIN THE SB CLUB
And feel extra good if they are playing in the 1PM time slot.
Minus the STRIKE year we have 48 years with time slot data.
Overall, the eventual SB WINNER has PLAYED ON 112 DAY AND WON,
and PLAYED AT 1PM
24 TIMES... OR 50% of the time.
4PM is not so good...
Overall, the eventual SB WINNER has PLAYED ON 112 DAY AN WON,
and PLAYED AT 4PM
6 TIMES... OR 12.5% of the time.
And 8PM SNF is the worst...
It's only happened twice or 4.1% of the time...
(NE for SB53 and BAL for SB35... notice the 35/53 and that 5+3=8?)
WHAT about if your SB pick or favorite team is playing the week of 112 DAY
but is playing the next day, playing on MNF?
Minus the STRIKE year there's been MNF for 48 years...
The eventual SB WINNER has PLAYED MNF the week of 112 DAY
4 TIMES... OR 8.3%
So, not so good, and you better hope they win MNF.
Of those 4 times they are 3-1 on MNF.
AND how about Thursday Night Football?
TNF is 13 years old...
And the eventual SB WINNER has PLAYED TNF the week of 112 DAY
1 TIME... OR 7.6% of the time.
And WHAT ABOUT BEING ON THEIR BYE WEEK the week of 112 DAY?
That's happened ONLY 3 TIMES... OR 5.7%
(SB25, SB41, and SB43)
So, how about your SB pick or favorite team making the SB AND LOSING?
It's exactly the same boat- THEY PLAY ON 112 DAY AND WIN most of the time.
There's also an almost 70% chance (69.2%)
that the eventual SB LOSER will PLAY ON 112 DAY AND WIN
There's been 53 SB years, minus the STRIKE YEAR when the NFL
did not play any games on 112 DAY, that's 52 years...
36 times out of those 52 years the eventual SB LOSER
PLAYED ON 112 DAY AND WON
AND THEY WERE .500 OR BETTER EVERY TIME.
So... if you want a team to MAKE THE SB it is VERY GOOD if
THEY PLAY ON 112 DAY, WIN, and are OVER .500
As for the TIME SLOT DATA for the eventual SB LOSERS
Minus the STRIKE year we have 48 years with time slot data.
Overall, the eventual SB LOSER has PLAYED ON 112 DAY AND WON,
and PLAYED AT 1PM
17 TIMES... OR 35.4%
AT 4PM:
14 TIMES... OR 29.1%
and AT 8PM SNF:
3 TIMES... OR 6.2%
So, far more even in the 1PM/4PM slots but you definitely don't want 'em on SNF.
AS for SB LOSERS playing the WEEK of 112 DAY
but playing the next day, playing MNF...
Minus the STRIKE year there's been MNF for 48 years...
The eventual SB LOSER has PLAYED MNF the week of 112 DAY
5 TIMES... OR 9.6%
and they are 3-2 on MNF.
There's been NO SB LOSERS that played TNF the week of 112 DAY.
And the eventual SB LOSER has been on BYE WEEK the week of 112 DAY
2 TIMES... OR 3.8%
So it basically goes like this. If you want a team to win or at least make the SB.
You want them to:
1. PLAY ON 112 DAY, WIN, and BE OVER .500 (+67.3%)
2. PLAY ON 112 DAY, LOSE, and BE OVER .500 (~11.5%)
3. NOT PLAY ON 112 DAY, PLAY MNF INSTEAD (7.6 - 9.6%)
4. NOT PLAY ON 112 DAY, BE ON BYE WEEK INSTEAD (3.8 - 5.7%)
5. PLAY ON 112 DAY, WIN OR LOSE, and BE UNDER .500 (0.0 - 3.8%)
6. PLAY ON 112 DAY and TIE (1.9%) /
NOT PLAY ON 112 DAY, PLAY TNF INSTEAD (1.9%)
And if we only look at the more modern era, the 16 game regular season era
when 112 DAY is later in the season, either WEEK 5 or WEEK 6
then it's even more true...
ONLY 16 GAME SEASON ERA:
Minus the STRIKE year there's been 40 of these years...
There's a 72.5% chance
that the eventual SB WINNER will PLAY ON 112 DAY AND WIN
29 out of those 40 years the eventual SB WINNER
PLAYED ON 112 DAY AND WON.
And 27 out of those 40 years the eventual SB LOSER
PLAYED ON 112 DAY AND WON... OR 67.5% of the time.
And you definitely want them to HAVE PLAYED THE WEEK BEFORE,
the PREVIOUS WEEK, AND HAVE WON
Of the 36 times the eventual SB WINNER PLAYED ON 112 DAY AND WON,
THEY WON THE PREVIOUS WEEK 27 TIMES...
...OR 75% of the time. [21 out of 29 sixteen game seasons or 72.4%]
THEY LOST THE PREVIOUS WEEK 7 TIMES...
...OR 19.4% of the time. [7 out of 29 sixteen game season or 24.2%]
and THEY TIED THE PREVIOUS WEEK ONCE,
and WERE ON BYE WEEK THE PREVIOUS WEEK ONCE
...or 2.7% of the time. [the tie was old school, the bye was sixteen game era and 3.4%]
As for the SB LOSER
Of the 36 times the eventual SB LOSER PLAYED ON 112 DAY AND WON,
they WON THE PREVIOUS WEEK 24 TIMES...
...OR 66.6% of the time [19 out of 27 sixteen game season or 70/3%]
they LOST THE PREVIOUS WEEK 6 TIMES...
...OR 16.6% of the time [6 out of 27 sixteen game season or 22.2%]
they TIED THE PREVIOUS WEEK ONCE... 2.7%
and they WERE ON BYE WEEK 5 TIMES...
...OR 13.8% of the time [5 out of 27 sixteen game seasons or 18.5%]
SO, AGAIN, WHAT DOES THIS MEAN FOR THIS SEASON...
Going into 112 DAY for the 2019 SEASON
(WEEK 6 10/13/19)...
...THESE are the teams alive for the VERY GOOD ODDS CLUB:
CAR IF THEY WIN
PHI / MIN WINNER
HOU / KC WINNER (KC did NOT win the previous week)
NO IF THEY WIN
SEA IF THEY WIN
BAL IF THEY WIN
SF / LA WINNER (LA did NOT win the previous week)
DAL IF THEY WIN (DAL did NOT win the previous week)
So a MAX of 8 TEAMS and a minimum of 3 TEAMS.
THERE'S A VERY VERY GOOD CHANCE THE
SB WINNER AND SB LOSER
IS AMONG THOSE TEAMS...
COMPARING 112 DAY TO TWO OTHER DAYS
HOWEVER... Since most teams play on Sundays every week,
and since most SB TEAMS tend to win a lot, this same thing can basically be said
for EACH WEEK...
I looked at 119 DAY, 112 DAY, and 105 DAY...
looking at just the MODERN sixteen game era it goes like this:
The eventual SB WINNER PLAYED ON... ...AND WON
119 DAY: 67.5%
112 DAY: 72.5%
105 DAY: 67.5%
Still looking at just the MODERN sixteen game era:
The eventual SB WINNER PLAYED ON... ...AND LOST
119 DAY: 22.5%
112 DAY: 12.1%
105 DAY: 7.5%
So looking at that you could say you don't want your team/pick
to LOSE on 105 DAY and you want them to WIN on 112 DAY
As for the SB LOSER
Still looking at the MODERN sixteen game era
The eventual SB LOSER PLAYED ON... ...AND WON
119 DAY: 57.5%
112 DAY: 67.5%
105 DAY: 65.0%
and the eventual SB LOSER PLAYED ON... ...AND LOST
119 DAY: 22.5%
112 DAY: 17.5%
105 DAY: 15.0%
So the only clear thing to say is LOSING gets progressively worse odds
for those three weeks... LOSING ON 105 DAY is the worse
And that WINNING ON 112 DAY is slightly or fairly strongly a lot better.
I mean WINNING ON 112 DAY is 5.0% higher for SB WINNERS
than on 119 or 105 DAY... and 10% higher for SB LOSERS than 119 DAY...
So obviously winning tends to be what eventual SB TEAMS do more weeks than not...
...but there may something to it
and now I'd like to go ahead and look at
98 DAY
91 DAY
84 DAY
77 DAY... at least.
even if it's by a percentage point or two maybe 112 DAY is the highest?
Of the two other days I've compared it to so far it's higher
by 2.5% in the tightest case and as high as 10.0%... So... I dunno.
For fun I searched the OPPONENTS...
the eventual SB WINNERS and SB LOSERS opponents for each of these three weeks
for their SB YEARS...
Here's the breakdown of the frequency of teams that played the eventual
SB TEAMS for 119, 112, and 105 DAY:
CLE: 15
WAS: 14
AZ: 14( Cardinals in either city)
DAL: 13
KC: 13
BUF: 12
SEA: 12
NYG: 11
CHARGERS: 11
ATL: 10
NO: 9
NYJ: 9
PHI: 9
DET: 9
SF: 9
STL/LA (Rams): 9
MIA: 8
IND: 8 (12 counting their BALTIMORE YEARS)
NE: 7
CHI: 7
CIN: 7
TN: 7
OAK: 7 (Raiders in either city)
BAL: 6 (includes 4 COLTS years)
HOU: 6
DEN: 6
JAC: 5
TB: 5
MIN: 4
PIT: 4
GB: 4
CAR: 3
I didn't break it down as to which week but if your SB pick is facing CLE
in either week 5, 6, or 7 this year it's slightly in their favor- then WAS, AZ,
then DAL, etc...
This year two of the teams that could WIN ON 112 DAY AND BE OVER .500,
(two of the "contenders"),
the Seahawks and the 49ers happen to be facing CLE in this span-
SF played CLE in week 5 (119 DAY) and SEA plays them week 6 (112 DAY)...
Then the 49ers also face the Redskins on 105 DAY (week 7)
No "contenders" face the Cardinals any of those weeks.
The Eagles face Dallas on 105 DAY (week 7)
The Texans face KC on 112 DAY (week 6)
No "contenders" face Buffalo
The Rams and Ravens faced/face Seattle in this span
The Vikings faced the Giants in this span.
No "contenders" for the Chargers.
The Texans and Rams faced/face the Falcons...
and that's all with double digit occurrences so...
Lotta hard work... not as promising as I hoped so far but whatever.
Cheers!
